Lambton Shores – ABCA Flood Outlook/Water Safety Notice 2015 03 24

This is a message that I received yesterday via email and wanted to share it with members
Mary Lynn


ABCA Flood Outlook/Water Safety Notice 2015 03 24

A brief warm up Wednesday with some rain, will keep water levels in area watercourses higher than normal through the week.

Moderately warm conditions and very little rainfall over the last two weeks has resulted in an ideal snowmelt situation to this point, with no flooding issue reported. Much of the water content of the snowpack has melted away slowly over this period, and while higher river flows have been observed, they have remained well below typical spring freshets.

Based on current forecasts, temperatures are expected to reach 7 or 8 degrees Celsius on Wednesday with a potential for approximately 10mm of rain or freezing rain. If the forecast holds up, it is expected that most of the remaining snowpack in fields and open areas will melt away. This runoff will combine with seasonally high water levels in streams and rivers, resulting in bank full conditions. Larger rivers are expected to peak by the weekend and will remain high into next week.

It is expected that peak river levels will remain below typical spring freshet conditions and no major riverine flooding is expected. Any flooding will be limited to traditional low lying floodplain areas. Further, with rivers mainly free of solid ice, the risk of ice-jam related flooding is minimal.

Municipal staff should monitor local drainage problem areas where snow conditions may have covered catch basins. Smaller rural watercourses have been drifted in by snow, which during a runoff, can block flows and back up water onto adjacent lands, resulting in localized flooding problems.

Residents are reminded that all ice should be considered unsafe. Additional caution should be used around watercourses, as slippery and unstable streambanks, streambanks hidden by drifted snow, and extremely cold water temperatures will create additional hazards.

This message will remain in effect until 10:00 a.m. Friday, March 27, 2015, unless local conditions warrant further updates. The Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority will continue to monitor watershed conditions and will provide an update if required.

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