Lambton Shores – ABCA Watershed Flood Outlook/Water Safety Notice

I am sharing the following message that was sent from the Municipality of Lambton Shores News. The notice can be view on their website.


The following Watershed Conditions Statement Flood Outlook Water Safety message was issued on March 13, 2015 at 10:00 a.m. by the Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority.

A moderate rise in streamflows is likely throughout this weekend and into early next week, with the slight potential of ice-jams

Based on current forecasts, daytime high temperatures are expected to be in the 4-8 degree range through the weekend and into at least Monday before falling back below seasonal. Daytime high temperatures by mid-week may be below freezing. Very little precipitation is expected over the weekend.

With warmer temperatures today and through the weekend, we expect there to be some runoff with the continued melting of the snowpack; however, with very little rainfall in the forecast, watercourses are expected to rise slowly and remain above normal through next week. Based on the current weather forecast, no major riverine flooding is expected.

While river flows are not expected to be significant, there is the potential that flows may be high enough to move some river ice that may have weakened over the past several days. A slight risk of ice jamming will be dependent on how quickly river levels rise. While it is expected that we will see some areas of open water or small areas of broken ice, the risk of ice jam related flooding is low for the weekend. Ice jam potential is limited primarily to the lower portions of the Ausable and Bayfield Rivers, including the river mouth areas of Port Franks, Bayfield, and to a lesser extent Grand Bend.

Municipal staff should monitor local drainage problem areas where snow conditions may have covered catch basins. Smaller rural watercourses have been drifted in by snow, which during a runoff, can block flows and back up water onto adjacent lands, resulting in localized flooding problems.

Residents are reminded that due to warmer temperatures and accompanying rainfall, all ice should be considered unsafe. In addition, please use caution near all watercourses. Slippery and unstable streambanks, streambanks hidden by drifted snow, and extremely cold water temperatures will create additional hazards.

This message will remain in effect until 10:00 a.m. Monday, March 16, 2015, unless local conditions warrant further updates. The Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority will continue to monitor watershed conditions and will provide an update if required.

Details are also available at

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